以解放者為名的國度,奇妙的天空之鏡

sunrise at salar de uyuni

HEXAGONES SUR LE SALAR DE UYUNI - BOLIVIE

Salar de Uyuni

Salar de Uyuni Tour -The Salar, Isla de Pescado and Hotel de Sal

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  • Oct 17 Sun 2010 02:14
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Currencies dominated this year’s annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund. More precisely, two currencies did: the dollar and the renminbi, the former because it was deemed too weak and the latter because it was deemed too inflexible. But, behind the squabbles, lies a huge challenge: how best to manage the global economic adjustment.

In his foreword to the new World Economic Outlook, Olivier Blanchard, the IMF’s economic counsellor, states: “Achieving a ‘strong, balanced and sustained world recovery’ – to quote from the goal set in Pittsburgh by the G20 – was never going to be easy . . . It requires two fundamental and difficult economic rebalancing acts.”

The first is internal rebalancing – a return to reliance on private demand in advanced countries and retrenchment of the fiscal deficits that opened in the crisis. The second is external rebalancing – greater reliance on net exports by the US and some other advanced countries and on domestic demand by some emerging countries, notably China. Unfortunately, concludes, Professor Blanchard, “these two rebalancing acts are taking place too slowly”.

We can consider this rebalancing on two dimensions. First, the erstwhile high-spending, high-deficit advanced countries need to de-leverage their private sectors on the journey to what Mohamed El-Erian of Pimco, the investment company, called “the new normal”, in his Per Jacobsson lecture. Second, the real exchange rates of economies with robust external positions, strong investment opportunities, or both, need to appreciate, while expansion of domestic demand offsets the consequent drag from net exports.

Aggressive monetary policy by reserve-issuing advanced countries, particularly the US, is an element in both processes. The cries of pain now heard around the world, as markets push currencies up against the dollar, partly reflect the uneven impact of US policy. Still more, they reflect the stubborn unwillingness to accept the needed changes, with each capital recipient trying to deflect the unwanted adjustment elsewhere.

To put it crudely, the US wants to inflate the rest of the world, while the latter is trying to deflate the US. The US must win, since it has infinite ammunition: there is no limit to the dollars the Federal Reserve can create. What needs to be discussed is the terms of the world’s surrender: the needed changes in nominal exchange rates and domestic policies around the world.

If you wish to understand how aggressive US policy might become, read a recent speech by William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He notes that, “in recent quarters the pace of growth has been disappointing even relative to our modest expectations at the start of the year”. Behind this lies deleveraging by US households, in particular. So what can monetary policy do about it? His answer is that “very low interest rates can help smooth the adjustment process by supporting asset valuations, including making housing more affordable and by allowing some borrowers to reduce debt interest payments. Beyond this . . . to the extent that monetary policy can ‘cut off the tail’ of the distribution of potential adverse economic outcomes  . . . it can help encourage those households and businesses with money to spend to do so”.

Above all, today’s low and falling inflation is potentially calamitous. At worst, the economy might succumb to debt-deflation. US yields and inflation are already following the path of Japan’s in the 1990s (see chart). The Fed wants to stop this trend. That is why another round of quantitative easing seems imminent.

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Solanin

我要為了你歌唱
為了證明、
你曾經存在過

 


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Kamogawa Horumo: Battle League in Kyoto



其實已經看完原著在去看(我不大想受到電影圖像的影響,讓我無從產生自己閱讀小說的mental image),所以電影要怎麼演的梗都摸的差不多了。但是我還是要說這電影還是太可愛了~太可愛的電影了啦~我已經把這個Quota用完了,後面的節目怎麼辦?「為什麼讓我看到這麼白爛又好笑的電影啊~要是我以後看不到怎麼辦啊?」



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beagle2001 分享 有道是越爛越飆,廢物垃圾指數越高者越起笑呀

發表於 December 28, 2009 at 10:23AM


beagle2001 分享 廢物指數真的是很重要的選股參考,因為夠廢物,才會更飆


發表於 December 30, 2009 at 04:28AM


beagle2001 分享 如果手上的持股不怎麼動,那是你的標的不夠爛、不夠廢!!! 台股真的是個快樂的瘋人院


發表於 December 30, 2009 at 10:51AM



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